Comments on: The Tories’ post-recession record on unemployment: not a pretty graph

By: Now would you credit rate it! « Though Cowards Flinch

Now would you credit rate it! « Though Cowards Flinch — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 16:40:50 +0000

[...] That’ll be the same Chris Huhne, who in January said this to a then Tory opponent about the dangers of really, really cutting spending: You’re being far too complacent about it. I used to actually run part of a credit rating agency that looked at government risk, and one thing that would really worry rating agencies was if growth was stalled, and then you didn’t get the growth in tax revenues which you normally expect in an upturn, and you being to get benefit claims rising because unemployment was not coming down. [...]

By: Brian Wilkinson

Brian Wilkinson — Tue, 04 May 2010 17:30:57 +0000

Thank god at last something to repudiate this often repeated bullshit. I lived through the eighties and was unemplyed for over a year during it so Im tired of hearing how this is comparable. You are now saved in favourites cheers

By: John Redwood: champion of public spending growth « Though Cowards Flinch

John Redwood: champion of public spending growth « Though Cowards Flinch — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 12:57:45 +0000

[...] made up of spending on social security, itself a direct result of the huge rise in unemployment, which continued to increase throughout the early 1980s despite the end of the recession in 1981. Conversely, ‘other current spending’ was [...]

By: Rebuttal yawn « Though Cowards Flinch

Rebuttal yawn « Though Cowards Flinch — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 09:55:07 +0000

[...] is how well governments have been at getting the rate down after recession. The tables I set out here tell that story of two poor Conservative responses, and one more effective Labour one. It’s a [...]

By: Semi-exclusive: Man who ran credit agency says Tories wrong about credit agencies « Though Cowards Flinch

Sun, 31 Jan 2010 10:33:51 +0000

[...] Then, in response, here’s a man who actually ran the sovereign debt bit of a credit rating agency: You’re being far too complacent about it. I used to actually run part of a credit rating agency that looked at government risk, and one thing that would really worry rating agencies was if growth was stalled, and then you didn’t get the growth in tax revenues which you normally expect in an upturn, and you being to get benefit claims rising because unemployment was not coming down. [...]

By: Barney Stannard

Barney Stannard — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 00:14:03 +0000

There never is. I sympathise.

Re the guy at PIMCO’s motives, I have no idea, depends what kind of guy he is etc, but I guess they are pretty honest.

Re the bond market; Huhne was a pretty talented bond trader, but I think if we’re honest no one can be certain what the bond market will do in the coming year or so. QE is a new phenomenon and we simply cannot be certain what will happen when it ends.

I think if we’re honest we should all admit that to varying degrees we are flying blind in this. We don’t know what the effect of cutting government expenditure will be on demand, and we don’t know how the bond markets will play out. We can make (do differing degrees) educated guesses, but no one really knows, because this particular situation hasn’t occured before.

So let us hope that whoever ends up in power guesses right.

By: paulinlancs

paulinlancs — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:57:37 +0000

Barney: No, I’d not seen this. Interesting. it’s hard to say what the motives are, but it’s an interestingly different take from Giles’ (his new post) AND from what Huhne said on the radio about the markets actually being more interested in long term growth than short term fiscal balance (though he did so as a political swipe at the Tory opponent. I must transcribe it as promised. I did ask Giles for his view on this and he said some interestig stuff about PIMCO’s position relative say to a pension fund, though I cant; find it right now. i remember this striking a chord cos Mandelson referred in his recent speech specifically to the role of pension funds in the economic masterplan he was trying to set out – it was unclear though what he meant.

Thanks for jogging my memory on this stuff, which I’d kind of drifted away from. i feel a post critiqued-by-you coming on, though I’m also aware I owe you a substantial post on sovereign debt default and your this is surely madness’ view (I’ve got one in note form around comparing Iceland with Democratic Republic of Congo to draw out some of my logics, which seeks to build on Dave’s Iceland post). Never seems to be enough time, mind.

By: Linky Love: 28th January 2010 « Left Outside

Linky Love: 28th January 2010 « Left Outside — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 08:05:51 +0000

[...] Paul Cotterill compares the most recent Labour and Tory recessions: Here’s the ONS graph showing three different [...]

By: Barney Stannard

Barney Stannard — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:13:17 +0000

You may well be right about the Tories policies. But no one really knows.

On the soveriegn debt issue, have you seen that the head of the world’s largest (or one thereof) bond trader, Pimco, has labelled British gilts as ‘sitting on nitroglycerine’ and said he’s pulled out. There are lots of people now talking about a rush from gilts as soon as the plug is pulled on QE.