On being right about the riots
The Riots Communities & Victims Panel has reported on the August 2011 riots:
When people feel they have no reason to stay out of trouble the consequences can be devastating. We must give everyone a stake in society……
The Panel spoke to many individuals from deprived backgrounds who did not riot. They told us that they had a stake in society that they did not want to jeopardise.
Which is pretty well exactly what I said on the very first evening of the riots:
Most people from richer areas, who have jobs or who have a good chance of getting a good job, will not riot in the next day or few because their retaining their job or job chance through not getting a criminal record is greater than any of the other incentives I have listed above.
It’s as simple as that.
People from poorer, more deprived areas and backgrounds are rioting for different, shifting motivations, but they are doing so because they do not have enough invested in what the state can offer them to outweigh the benefits of that rioting.
Seven months on, there are less opportunities to invest in society than there were.