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Cameron’s head boy, Lansley’s the prefect

February 10, 2012 Leave a comment

Sunny Hundal is half right:

incompetence in dealing with the NHS and incompetence in growing the economy & reducing unemployment is how Labour need to define this government. Not ‘out of touch’ but just ‘incompetent’.

Labour’s first line of attack does indeed need to be on the government’s incompetence, but it needs to stress that the government as a whole is incompetent precisely BECAUSE Cameron and his inner circle (Osborne, Letwin and a couple of others) are ‘out of touch’.

The image that springs to mind is a public school.  For convenience, let’s call it Eton.

Cameron is the head boy, sitting in his warm study by the fire with his chums, toasting muffins and talking high political principle.  Meanwhile, outside in the courtyard the megalomaniac prefects, of a lower social class than Cameron and chums – selected for their mix of brutality to those over whom they wield power and obsequiousness to their superiors - wreak havoc on the lower fourth, picking particularly on the weedy vulnerable ones.  Cameron is oblivious to all this. He would probably, you feel, disapprove slightly, but the study is warm, and Oliver’s brought sherry……

Within four months of the Tories coming to power. I set out this public school-like operational code of the government: a high politics/low politics divide, in which a lot of domestic policy is regarded by the inner circle as simply beneath them, and has been delegated in full to rabid freemarketeers like Gove, Lansley and Pickles.   This has been reflected not just in the NHS debacle, but also in Gove’s repeated blunders and Pickles’ obvious lies.  It is also reflected in Cameron now frequent lies at PMQs, and his developing ‘Flashman’ image.

To date, Labour has been too focused on identifying Cameron as heir to Thatcher to notice that the style of government is quite different.  Now, at last, it does look like they are adopting accurate line of attack, though probably still more by accident than by design. 

 

 

 

The intriguing Holliband possibility created by Cameron’s EU stupidity

January 29, 2012 1 comment

When Cameron vetoed the ‘Merkozy treaty’ in early December, it meant that the deal could not be signed off as a variation to the Lisbon Treaty, and that any deal would need to be an intergovernmental treaty of the 26 participating countries.  As such, any deal is separate from the workings of the European Union.

This threw into doubt whether the 26 countries signing up to the Merkozy “non-EU” treaty could legitimately use the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ) to police the deal and punish states which failed to abide by the proposed fiscal rules.  At the time, Cameron threatened legal action to stop the other 26 governments trying to use the ECJ in this way.

Unsurprisingly, now that he’s gained cheap political brownie points from using the veto, Cameron’s not bothered about pursuing this threat.  Diplomats are calling it a “heat of the moment” thing, and it’s being dropped as quietly as possible. 

This does, however, raise an intriguing possibility.

If the 26 member states now do go ahead uninterrupted and sign offtheir economically absurd pact, and include within it provision for ECJ ruling authority, it sets an important precedent for any set of European countries to come together, bash out a deal, and then call on the ECJ to do its thing.

Logically and legally, what could stop Francois Hollande, coming together with other like-minded European countries to sign a pact running entirely counter to the Merkozy pact, and asking the ECJ to be the binding arbiter on that too? 

After all, Hollande has already set out a clear manifesto promise around the need for a new ‘pact’.

Je proposerai à nos partenaires un pacte de responsabilité,de gouvernance et de croissance [growth] pour sortir de la crise et de la spirale d’austérité qui l’aggrave. Je renégocierai le traité européen issu de l’accord du 9 décembre 2011 en privilégiant la croissance et l’emploi, et en réorientant le rôle de la Banque centrale européenne dans cette direction. Je proposerai de créer des euro-obligations [Euro-bonds]. Je défendrai une association pleine et entière des parlements nationaux et européen à ces décisions. Cinquante ans après le traité de l’Élysée, je proposerai à notre partenaire l’élaboration d’ un nouveau traité franco-allemand.

Why would this new pact have any less legal weight than the one now being rushed through before Sarkozy is sent packing?

The  like-minded countries Hollande needs for such a scheme might include Spain, whose (rightwing) government is now calling for a ‘new realism’ about how to manage the economic crisis in light of its descent into economic chaos, and Greece,  fuming at Germany’s proposal to make its government subservient to an EU budget commissioner. 

It might, in 2015, also include Britain (or England/Wales/NI & Scotland) if Labour were minded to push for an entirely new approach to the European economy, something Ed Miliband at least hinted at in Davos this week (though clearly ideas on what to do are not yet formed).  If Labour has its wits about it, it should see jumping on the Hollande bandwagon, in a common drive to reorientate the EU towards the welfare of its people, as a very attractive proposition.

The alternative ‘Holliband’ pact might include shared commitments to investment in jobs, with targets for the reduction in unemployment levels, as a mirror to the stupid fiscal targets advocated by Merkozy, and call on the sanction of the ECJ for countries that failed to meet the employment and other needs of its citizens.

Clearly, two diametrically opposed  intergovernmental pacts, formed outside the EU but calling on the same EU institution for their operative legitimacy, would create a legal and institutional crisis at the heart of the EU that Cameron could never possibly have dreamed of when he stook his foot in his mouth in December, but that might well be better than simply allowing the current rightwingers in France and Germany to carry through their plans for the outlawing of  socialist econmics in Europe.

And what better payback for Cameron’s arrogant but wholly ignorant politicking with the EU than for him, in time, to see it used as the opening for a few Left front for a new Left ascent in Europe.

 

Osborne’s lie hits small businesses for thousands

January 27, 2012 Leave a comment

I’ve been following the National Loan Guarantee Scheme.  Well, someone has to.

In his Autumn Statement, announcing the scheme, Osborne was specific about the reduced costs for businesses:

We expect that it will lead to reductions of 1 percentage point in the rate of interest being charged to these companies so a business facing a 7% interest rate to get a £5 million loan could instead see its rate reduced to 6% and its interest costs fall by up to £50,000.

Paul Myners (Lab) has been following it too in the Lords.  Hence his written question:

To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether they expect their proposed programme of credit easing to lead to a reduction of one percentage point in the rate of interest being charged to companies, as forecast in the Autumn Statement on 29 November 2011, or to lead to a small reduction as indicated in HM Treasury’s publication of 6 December 2011 on the national loan guarantee scheme.

 Commercial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Sassoon) replied:

The national loan guarantee scheme, as announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, will lead to a reduction of loan interest rates to smaller businesses by up to 1 percentage point.

Lord Sassoon is lying.  Osborne didn’t say “up to 1 percentage point”.  He said ”1 percentage point.”  That small difference makes thousands of pounds difference to small companies.*

So did Osborne also make a false statement to the Chamber?  Time will tell, but I think he probably did.**

*A quick calculation on the loss of savings to businesses suggests that if the interest rate cut ends up at, say, 0.5% rather than 1% on the £20bn scheme, this will cost businesses £100m, at presumably crucial times in their survival/growth.

** It will be interesting to see if the 1% rate cut forecast by Osborne is actually accounted for in the guarantee part of the scheme, but lowered en route to businesses up as banks charge administration costs etc..

The lie behind Greening’s HS2 decision

January 10, 2012 1 comment

The green light for the  £33bn high speed rail project (HS2) was widely expected, once the level of bribery to Tory constituencies on the route had been negotiated.  £500m on a tunnel under the Chilterns to placate a few dozen well-heeled folk is obviously – if you’re Justine Greening  - better value for money than the £60m it would cost to build a rail link to Skelmersdale’s 40,000 residents.

But this is common or garden skullduggery.  The real scandal lies in the half-truth and lies told in a key document published today to justify Greening’s decision, the Economic Case for HS2: Updated appraisal of transport user benefits and wider economic benefits

The ‘killer’ paragraphs come between 3.5.5 and 3.5.10, in the section on ‘Regional impacts and Wider Economic Impacts’.

Para 3.5.4 states:

There may also be significant local effects; for instance, a new station can act as a magnet for economic activity and drive regeneration in deprived areas (my emphasis.

The clue is in the use of ‘may’. 

You might have thought that for a 32bn scheme some actual investigation into its possible and likely consequences for the areas concerned, but the reality is that there have been no such investigations – simply blind faith that the whole thing will work out for the best.

After a few paragraphs of vague wish lists about what ‘wider economic impacts’ (WEIs) the scheme might bring in the form of business clustering and labour markets, we get this at 3.5.8:

The WEIs guidance  is carefully designed to measure national impacts. However, at a regional and local level the effects of HS2 on the distribution of activity could also be very significant.

Then, finally, we get the clincher (para 3.5.9-10)

[A]lthough there are many examples where growth and regeneration has been delivered around a high speed rail station, there may be balancing effects across the wider area. However, the circumstances in which, and extent to which, this happens is not clear….

These local impacts are considered more fully in the Review of HS2 London to West Midlands Appraisal of Sustainability report (my emphasis).

For “balancing effects”, read “negative effects”.

For “considered more fully”, read “not considered at all”

For what the Appraisal of Sustainability report in question actually says is:

In undertaking this assessment account has been taken of the socio-economic impact of transport schemes including other high speed rail schemes. It is commonly accepted that the main impact on land use, of new stations or improved services, is located within a 10-15 minutes walking distance of the station, which equates to a catchment area of 1km (para. 1.3.1., my emphasis).

Thus, the report is not by, any stretch of the imagination, an assessment of wider impacts.  Indeed the report acknowledges this when it says:

The next steps in developing the socio-economic appraisal may be to……investigate the wider regional impacts of high speed rail, for example, how the Black Country region would be affected by the introduction of High Speed Rail to Birmingham (para 1.3.5.).

So, the wider regional impact investigation  recommended in the previous report has not been undertaken, but the report published today pretends that the original report did cover those wider impacts.

That, put simply, is a lie.

This is not simply an esoteric point about what is and isn’t in what DfT document. 

This is about the spending of  £33bn on a scheme which has the real capacity to wreak havoc on people in towns and cities – most likely some distance from the new stations but close enough to see economic activity “sucked away”.

As I set out here, such concerns are summed up in a 2009 paper ‘High Speed Rail: Lessons for Policy Makers from Experiences Abroad’, in which the authors study the actual post-construction impact of schemes in Japan, France, Spain and Italy:

[F]or regions and cities whose economic conditions compare unfavorably with those of their neighbors, a connection to the HST line may even result in economic activities being drained away and an overall negative impact……Medium size cities may well be the ones to suffer most from the economic attraction of the more dynamic, bigger cities. Indeed, Haynes (1997) points out that growth is sometimes at the expense of other centers of concentration (my emphasis).

Time will tell whether my concerns are justified, but what we can already be certain of is that 32bn of public money is to be spent on a scheme which has not been properly research, and the justification for which is underpinned by quiet, but important, lie in the small print.

Cameron on nursing: deeply ignorant, deeply disrespectful

January 6, 2012 Leave a comment

Imagine the scene. 

Cameron visits a hospital in, let’s say, Barnsley.  His advisers have been doing their homework and have told him that there’s a new opioid anaesthetic drugs, Remifentanil, which is very promising because it clears from the body very quickly post-anaesthetic, and doesn’t have any adverse effect on the excretory organs like the kidneys.

Cameron, enthused by this, asks to go to the operating theatres, not least because he thinks he’ll look quite dashing in the greens – a bit like George Clooney off ER.  He has small talk with the anaesthetist delegated to show him around, and then asks him, as a supposedly surprise question, what he thinks of Remifentanil.   The anaesthetist replies that it is, in his view, a useful addition to the anaesthetic armoury, especially for people with pre-existing kidney function problems.

Cameron thanks the anaesthetist and moves on. Half an hour later, he hold a press conference, at which he announces that he wants to see Remifentanil used as the anaesthetic drug of choice in future.

Anaesthetists up and down the country are bemused by the new announcement, but Cameron’s PM and he’s given the order. The use of Remifentanil is rolled out across the country, and within a year there’s a surge in people reporting severe post-operative pain because of inadequate pain relief, since other points in the prescribing chain have not caught up with the short-acting nature of Remifentanil.

There is uproar about how badly people are being treated in surgical wards.  Cameron calls for an inquiry into what’s gone on, and says heads will roll…….

It may not be quite as dramatic but this is essentially the disgraceful, disrespectful behaviour Cameron engaged in this morning towards nurses, when he instructed that ‘hourly rounds’ should be introduced to wards. 

Of course, had he made such an announcement about Remifentanil, he’d have been laughed out of town by the medical establishment.   The point is that, because it’s the nursing profession he’ll ordering around, he thinks he can get away with precisely this level of disrespect.

Let’s just be clear about where we stand with ‘nursing rounds’. 

This recent research overview is helpful [subscriber only, but just put “Intentional rounding: its role in supporting essential care” into Google”:

The idea of systematically rounding to ensure patients’ essential care needs are met is not new.

For many years, nurses carried out “back” rounds, where particular attention was paid to patients’ skin to avoid skin breakdown. While aspects of these were evidence based, anecdotally staff believed patients felt more comfortable after the round and it provided an opportunity to build relationships between nurses and patients.

With the advent of the holistic nursing care approach and the requirement for more technical skills, nurses began to move farther away from the bedside and began to view such task-oriented processes as archaic, preferring to focus on the provision of “individualised” care.

However, concerns about essential nursing care have refocused attention on the need to ensure fundamental aspects of care are delivered reliably, alongside individualised care.

The research overview provides a positive case for a return to “rounds”, with a particular focus on the certainty and confidence that they bring to patients. 

Even so, the authors acknowledge that there are potential downsides to the reintroduction of ’round’ routines. There is not room here to cover the risks and unintended consequences in detail, but they include the obvious risk that rounding routines soon develop their own bureaucratic logic, such that patient individuality become ignored, and those patients who need to develop the independence in daily activities that they need when they go home are discouraged from doing so; the fostering of independence was precisely the reason for adopting new nursing processes in the 1970s and 1980s.  

In general, nursing academics now encouraging a return to old routines are short-sighted in two ways. 

First, they tend to use, as their baseline for the measurement of improved care, standards of personal care which have already dipped signficantly since the 1970s, principally because of lowered staffing levels.  This gives a false positive when it comes to reviewing the effectiveness of the return to rounds.

Second, they are so ‘stuck’ within nursing literature that they fail to use the wider social insights of, say, Implementation Studies, which show very clearly how the routinisation of tasks leads over time to poor quality of service, whatever the initial success of top-down ordered pilot studies.  In the face of continued staff shortages, it is perfectly possible to imagine scenarios where patients are told that they will “have to wait for the round” before they can be removed from their own shit.

The point of this article, however, is not so much that the nursing profession itself may be on a very slippery slope if it returns to old, trusted ways as a short-term solution to inadequate staffing levels borne of political expediency, and that they would be better off politicising the debate (that was the point of this article).

The point is that Cameron and his flunkies have failed to recognise that the debate about the best way for the profession to meet its aspirations to standards is still very much ongoing.  That is, after all, why the nursing rounds that have been introduced have tended to be on a pilot basis – time is needed to see if they stay as effective as their proponents claim they will be.

In making this, off-the-cuff, prime ministerial order to a profession he knows nothing about - introducing on the basis of scanty evidence at best - nursing methods now deeply alien to many highly trained staff (just see the comments to the research overview), Cameron displays deep disrespect to half a million nursing staff.

It is not something he would have done to doctors, that’s for sure.  But then perhaps he thinks nurses should be treated the same way as he treats women in the House of Commons.

Is the National Loan Guarantee Scheme the new Project Merlin?

January 4, 2012 1 comment

On November 29th, in his Autumn statement, Chancellor Osborne announced a credit easing programme to replace the failed Project Merlin:

We are launching our national loan guarantee scheme…….New loans and overdrafts to businesses with a turnover of less than £50 million will be eligible for the scheme, so that it stays focused on smaller companies. We expect that it will lead to reductions of 1 percentage point in the rate of interest being charged to these companies so a business facing a 7% interest rate to get a £5 million loan could instead see its rate reduced to 6% and its interest costs fall by up to £50,000 (my emphasis).

On 6th December, HM Treasury published some initial details on how the National Loan Guarantee Scheme will work.  These include:

In many cases the scheme will lead to a reduction in the cost of business loans of up to 1 percentage point.

So 0.75%? 0.5%?

That looks a lot like rowing backwards to me, following discussions with the banks on how the scheme is going to be implemented.

As with Project Merlin, the devil will be in the detail, but the initial signs are not good. Watch this space. 

 

 

Categories: Terrible Tories

Christmas message from Bickerrecord

December 24, 2011 Leave a comment

2011, dear reader, was a really shite year. The right won, and life is worse for billions of people around the world.

In 2012, the organised labour movement will, I predict, make a partial comeback, in Britain and elsewhere, and the foundations for a fuller challenge will be laid, not least through productive engagement with newer social movements.  Though Cowards Flinch will help.  A bit. 

End of message. Now go to the pub, if it’s not closed down.

Why has Osborne uprated benefits by 5.2%?

November 29, 2011 2 comments

At first sight, the most surprising statement of Osborne’s Autumn mini-budget is this:

I also want to protect those who are not able to work because of their disabilities and those who, through no fault of their own, have lost jobs and are trying to find work, so I can confirm that we will uprate working-age benefits in line with September’s consumer prices index inflation number of 5.2%.

Why would the government be so keen to protect those on benefit when they are content to batter the ‘squeezed middle’ by freezing most elements of Working Tax Credit?

I think the answer may lie on the Tory backbenchers. Here’s Harriet Baldwin MP.

The economics of being on benefits varies across the UK. With median weekly earnings of £432 in Jarrow and median earnings of £733 in Chelsea, the benefits of working relative to one national rate of benefit is much clearer in Chelsea. Localising Universal Credit to a labour market’s median average wage could be a sensible next step.

But Baldwin is just the messenger, and is behind the times anyway.

As I set out in some detail here, the recent coming into law of the Localism Act now provides the perfect platform for the localisation of benefit rates and eligibility.  By localisation, I mean driving down.  This is something the right of the Tory party has been committed to since at least 2009, when the leader of Kent County Council was canvassing support in eight regions on England.  Patrick Wintour said at the time:

Similar proposals to take responsibility for setting benefit rates from the Department for Work and Pensions have been made by Essex County Council….. In a paper tabled this week, the council proposed that councils be given powers to set eligibility criteria and payment rates for all working-age benefits within the county, including income support, jobseeker’s allowance and employment support allowance.”

I have no proof of what’s afoot yet, but there’s plenty of circumstantial evidence that Tory councils are planning to drive down benefit rates and restrict eligibility just as soon as they can.

I suspect this is all part of a Tory-wide plot to create further destitution, while enabling Osborne and co to distance themselves from the scene of the crime.

Be wary.  Local benefit cuts could be hitting your area sometime very soon, whatever Osborne says about “protecting” people.  I suspect he can afford to play the compassionate Conservative today  because he knows the savage cuts are due to come from elsewhere in his party.

“Farage Fever” – a Labour opportunity in disguise?

November 28, 2011 12 comments

The Tories have always had Labour on the argument about the EU.

Knowing which side of the fence a good majority of Tories sit on, regarding the European Union, they are able to draw political capital both from crises within the eurozone, but also look like the fighting party on getting a referendum put to parliament (and because the majority of the British public want a referendum and support leaving the European Union this doesn’t play havoc with the Tories one bit).

According to YouGov polls in October (pdf), if there were to be a referendum the next day 71% of those who voted Conservative in 2010 would have voted for the United Kingdom to leave the EU (compared with 41% in Labour). Further, 69% of those who intend to vote Conservative in the next election would vote the same (compared to 39% Labour).

There is a lot resting on the Tories to provide the right line on Europe to those who intend to vote for it next time – but this will come after a European election in 2014 where, let’s be honest, Ukip are going to do quite well.

This has sent Farage’s babes round the twist with excitement. One such member, Michael Heaver, wrote during one blog post:

According to the latest YouGov poll, some 11 percent of 2010 Tory voters now intend to switch to UKIP. And that’s only since last year. A smattering of highly credible 2010 Tory candidates such as Janice Atkinson-Small and Andrew Charalambous have switched sides as has Lord Hesketh, former Tory Treasurer and perhaps the biggest defection to UKIP in the young Party’s history.

For people like him, 2015 is set to be marked by “Farage Fever” – that is where the Liberal Democrats and their 7% polling “boom” will seem timid in comparison.

Yesterday, I was reading through Jon Worth’s article on LabourList, where he praised his Ukip interlocuteurs for, basically, not being mad and actually bringing some good information to the fore. This got me thinking.

Ukip are able to have a go at the Tories because they look lightweight on Europe and left-leaning in comparison with the political make-up of the general public as gleaned from polls. To Labour, the Tories will always be right wing, but more so because of their fiscal conservative rhetoric. So, Labour have the opportunity to do the unthinkable: split the right by saying something like “Ukip are wrong, but they look even more reasonable than the Tories these days” – or something to that effect.

Expect more backhanded complements to the Ukip now that they are actually a threat the Conservative party, but remember that they are at best unreconstructed Thatcherites (i.e. blind to the causes of today’s crises).

The Tories’ two political bailouts

November 28, 2011 Leave a comment

The government has announced two schemes in the last 72 hours.

First, 16 Work Programme providers who were failing to meet their targets have been offered a lifeline in the form of the employment subsidy element of the Youth Contract. 

The providers will now be able to claim payment under their current contract if they have any involvement in a young person taking up one of the 160,000 six month posts.  The current payment schedule is up to £3,800 per job outcome.  In effect, the providers are being offered the same money for less work, because these subsidised posts mean employers will have an incentive to take people on.

Second, the government is to underwrite up to £20bn in bank loans to businesses.  This is being done because the banks have been failing in their primary purpose, with loans to businesses falling through the year. 

This move by Osborne – necessarily an admission that banks are not lending enough to small businesses - comes just three weeks after Cameron incorrectly boasted in the Commons that lending to small businesses was increasing and that everything was fine.  I hope Ed Balls/Chuka Ummuna will make that point this week.

Both new schemes have a common thread.

They are political bailouts, with taxpayer money used to subsidise growth and labour market strategies which have clearly not delivered to date, but which are deemed politically too big to fail.

Categories: Terrible Tories
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