The Unintended Consequences of AV and the BNP
Although it is uncouth for a political blogger to say so, I admit the argument over the voting system has failed to get me too excited, though sometimes someone will turn out something that’ll perk my ears up on the subject.
Take Andrew Rawnsley recently for example, when he noted:
The prime minister must also be asking himself how exactly he would justify opposing this reform. He could claim that AV is a little more likely to produce indecisive, weak coalitions. That was his argument during the election campaign. But there’s a bit of problem with that now, isn’t there? The self-same David Cameron is king of a coalition which he hails as strong and resolute. Lovers of political paradox are going to be in heaven.
The most important thing for Cameron before the 2015 election – taking for granted that the coalition government will last this long, which it will – is running an effective campaign for the Tories as a separate party to the Liberal Democrats. By this time the country will probably have an existing AV system, and it will be interesting to see whether Cameron campaigns on the anti-AV ticket as he did before, or as an AV convert – which apparently Tories ought not be worried about anyway, since, according to one law scholar, it will apparently:
be likely to win the second preference votes of most UKIP voters, a large slice of the Liberal Democrat vote and a surprisingly large number of green voters. AV may well be one of the pillars of 21st Century Conservative political success
There is another thing I identify in the debate that drives me to frustration, and that’s the concern the BNP will gain as a consequence of AV.
One Professor Ted Cantle, who is the executive chair of Coventry University’s Institute of Community Cohesion, mentions that “In 2001 the BNP picked up 47,000 votes, in 2005 it had grown to 192,000. This year it was 563,000 … Under a proportional representation system the BNP would have picked up12 seats for the BNP.”
For me, proportionality is nothing without representation, and for all that the former will do for the parliamentary system, we have only known a severe lack in the latter. But the argument presented by some politicians that we should abandon the move towards proportionality on the grounds that it may benefit the far right seems like just another way to deflect responsibility for its rise in the first place.
Tory MP for Totnes Sarah Wollaston, for example:
[w]hile welcoming the chance for voters to have a say on replacing first-past-the-post Westminster elections with the Alternative Vote in a referendum to be held on May 5 next year … argued it would give “a second bite of the cherry” to minority parties such as the BNP.
Nick Clegg, whose reason for being at the moment is the AV referendum, said that if AV “were susceptible to such dangers [as the far right and extremist politics entering the mainstream as a consequence of the AV system, then] I would be as concerned as she is.”
Not a full and rigid answer by any stretch of the imagination, but even Clegg, who, one might speculate, only chose to form a government with the Tories to get this one issue through, has admitted that his concerns about it would be raised if it appeared to favour the BNP.
It is this model, of trying to ignore the BNP, that has engendered where we are with them today. They increase their support where they can convince people they offer the alternative to the mainstream parties, who have perhaps neglected them. And it is a shameful testimony of how much the BNP increased their vote under a Labour government.
But not only should we avoid putting a more proportional system into jeopardy because unpalatable parties might reap some of the benefits, we should attempt to address some of the reasons as to why the BNP are a concern in the first place; rather than trying to identify the legal mechanisms with which to utilise to keep the BNP out, all three main parties should ask themselves why so many people have felt the need to offer the BNP a vote.
From a Labour perspective, I embrace the AV system for the simple reason that Labour since Blair (in particular, though I’m aware people think it goes further back) have taken for granted the working class vote, while it has done more to pander ideologically to the well-heeled and those who benefit the most from a neo-liberal agenda.
In the knowledge that third party/protest party votes will count for more, Labour ought to feel this pinch and reorganise its agenda to return to the grassroots (though I worry about the will to do so).
Some people might argue this frees up the centre ground to a wider range of parties ( – the argument that suggests while Labour court the centre, the Tories are forced right, which in turn suppresses the UKIP vote – it’s out their believe me) but in addition to curbing those opportunistic left wing parties who inevitably will see room to manoeuvre with a more proportional system, carving up the left vote even further, it will force the party to be more appealing to those who feel, or potentially feel, disillusioned by Labour; and have acted upon that – for though we can pretend the BNP is so extreme their vote was never Labour’s vote anyway, to look at Professor Ted Cantle’s results above, it cannot be a coincidence that the increase in BNP vote has massively increased under Labour’s watch.




(Paul Sagar of the
As huffing and puffing seems to be what lefties are best at, in the eyes of the Right-blogosphere at least, we at Though Cowards Flinch thought it might be fun to try some.
Allegations by the Sunday Telegraph that there are “Islamists” at work in the Labour Party won’t come as a galloping shock to anyone who regularly reads Private Eye. That organ has contained plenty of juicy gossip about Lutfur Rahman, leader of Tower Hamlets’ council, and the goings on in that area. The Telegraph simply attempted to put a name and formal structure to the influence peddling and dodgy politics.
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